October 30 Capitol Pulse Results: Congress Strengthens Its Democratic House Forecast, Shifts Toward Democrats in the Senate, and Sees Christian Influence in America

Congress Strengthens Its Forecast for a Democratic House

83.33% of Congress expects Democrats to win the House in the midterms , compared with 16.67% who predict a Republican victory.

The Democratic advantage has grown since earlier Capitol Pulse polling. In March, 76.56% predicted a Democratic House win , compared with 23.44% who expected Republicans to prevail. By October, the share predicting a Democratic victory had increased by nearly seven percentage points, while the Republican forecast declined.

The partisan breakdown shows that even Republican respondents lean toward a Democratic House. 66.67% of Republicans predict Democrats will win , while 33.33% expect Republicans to hold the chamber. Among Democrats, every respondent predicts a Democratic victory.

The forecast has consistently favored Democrats, and the latest results show that expectation strengthening since March.

Congress Shifts Toward Democrats in the Senate Forecast

The Senate forecast has shifted since earlier Capitol Pulse polling. 53.47% of Congress now expects Democrats to win the Senate , compared with 46.53% who predict a Republican victory.

In March, the forecast favored Republicans, with 57.46% predicting a Republican Senate win and 42.54% expecting Democrats to prevail. The latest results reverse that margin, giving Democrats an advantage of nearly seven percentage points.

The partisan breakdown still follows party lines. 84.44% of Democrats predict a Democratic Senate , while 77.50% of Republicans expect Republicans to win. Among Republicans, 22.50% predict a Democratic victory; among Democrats, 15.56% predict a Republican one.

The change in the overall forecast is notable: Capitol Pulse respondents have moved from favoring Republican control of the Senate in March to narrowly favoring Democrats in October.

Congress Sees Christian Influence in America

When asked whether America is a Christian nation, Congress most often describes the country as having some Christian influence, at 37.13% . Another 31.69% say America was founded as a Christian nation, while 22.38% describe it as having strong Christian influence. Just 8.81% say there is little to no Christian influence.

The partisan differences are pronounced. 54.00% of Republicans say America was founded as a Christian nation , compared with 9.38% of Democrats. Democrats most often select some Christian influence, at 56.25% , while 18.75% say America has strong Christian influence.

The largest overall response is that America has some Christian influence, while Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to describe the country as founded as a Christian nation.

Congress Most Often Wants Two or Three Children

Asked how many children they want, 52.10% of Congress choose two or three . Another 25.62% select four children, 18.32% say they want none, and 3.96% choose one.

The parties differ on family size. 60.71% of Democrats prefer two or three children , compared with 43.48% of Republicans. Republicans are more likely to choose four children, at 36.96% , compared with 14.29% of Democrats. The share who want no children is similar: 15.22% of Republicans and 21.43% of Democrats.

Two or three children is the leading choice overall and among both parties, while Republicans are more likely to select four.

Congress Plans to Vote in Its Home State

Most respondents expect to vote in their home state rather than from a D.C.-area address. 83.99% say they will vote in their home state , while 16.01% plan to vote using their D.C.-area address.

The pattern holds across parties. 87.50% of Democrats plan to vote in their home state , compared with 80.49% of Republicans. The remaining 12.50% of Democrats and 19.51% of Republicans plan to vote using their D.C.-area address.

The results show that most respondents plan to cast their ballots in their home state, even while working in and around Washington.