Capitol Pulse Trends: Voter Disinterest 🗳️
CNCT is wishing you a relaxing August recess! This August, instead of our typical Capitol Pulse polls and newsletters, we are looking at trends in topics we’ve been asking about this year.
Since January, roughly 2% of Congressional Staffers have voted daily to give their anonymous opinions on topical issues, giving us great insights into the minds behind the Members. These Capitol Pulse results have revealed quite a few unlikely topics where Republicans and Democrats surprisingly agree…
💭 This week’s big idea: Unusually high disinterest from Staffers regarding the 2024 presidential election.
1️⃣ Trend #1: The apparent Staffer disinterest in voting this year is mainly based on Staffers' confidence or concern in the candidates.
🗳️ In a Capitol Pulse poll from March, our data, represented by Staffers who voted, shows:
65% of Staffers were not excited to vote.
37% of Republican Staffers said they were excited to vote.
34% of Democratic Staffers were also excited.
Considering Staffers have dedicated part of their lives to public service and oftentimes are the most politically active and involved individuals in the country, these numbers shocked us.
🗳️ With how much the election has changed since March, we decided to ask the same question again in August. Check out how much things changed...
53% of Staffers are excited to vote.
75% of Democratic Staffers are excited.
37% of Republican Staffers are excited.
🤔 Here’s what we think: The original lack of interest in this year's election seems to be completely based on candidates. When it was Biden v. Trump, Staffers were tired of the same old options.
Democratic excitement jumped 41% from March to August signifying Biden’s withdrawal energized Democrats in a way that never could have been accomplished if he stayed on the ticket.
Meanwhile, in the Grand Old Party, voter excitement has not changed at all since March. Even with all that has happened with Trump, it has led to zero change among GOP Staffer sentiment.
2️⃣ Trend #2: Staffers prefer newer, younger candidates.
🗳️ While Biden was still the Democratic nomination, we asked Staffers if they would choose a new presidential candidate for their party:
77% of Staffers voted ‘yes.’
88% of DEM Staff voted ‘yes.’
And 70% of GOP Staff voted ‘yes.’
The first trend shows us that Staffers were originally not excited to vote in this year’s election. The second poll confirms this was a candidate issue all along.
What’s the issue with the candidates then? Whether it's a matter of health, age, or mannerisms, Staffers were skeptical of the original candidates’ abilities to get the job done.
🗳️ We asked federal Staffers if they felt Biden was too old to run for reelection…
84% voted ‘yes’
97% of GOP Staff voted ‘yes’
59% of Dem Staff voted ‘yes’
Granted, this poll was taken before the Presidential Debate.
🗳️ We also asked if they believed Trump had the mental and physical aptitude to serve again…
61% of Staffers voted ‘no’
96% of DEM Staff voted ‘no’
27% GOP Staff voted ‘no’
While the election was between Biden and Trump, it’s no question why Staffers were not enthusiastic about voting. It’s also no question that they value candidates who are younger and have higher mental and physical aptitude.
While we don’t think these Staffers are disillusioned with the election completely, they want a change. And change they got… ⬇️
3️⃣ Trend #3: With an ever-changing and unpredictable election, Staffers’ opinions are also ever-changing and, at times, unpredictable. The political whirlwind this summer says it all.
🗳️ In June, we asked Staffers whether they thought Kamala Harris could potentially win an election. Here’s what they said…
90% of Staffers voted ‘no’
76% of DEM Staff voted ‘no’
98% GOP Staff voted ‘no’
🗳️ Now, with Kamala as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, here’s what Staffers think about her chances of winning:
49% of Staffers said she has a “medium” chance of winning
48% of DEM Staff also rated her chances as “medium”
49% of GOP Staff said the same!
Since Biden stepped down and was replaced with Harris, Staffers’ thoughts on her chances of winning an election have risen significantly.
The overall takeaway: VP Harris’ rise to being the presumptive Democratic nominee provided an electrifying charge that resuscitated the party’s enthusiasm for 2024, proving a new and younger candidate can make all the difference. While the Democratic Party has come to life again, the GOP has struggled to get Staffers excited with the same nominee three elections in a row.